Re: [R] maximum likelihood convergence reproducing Anderson Blundell 1982 Econometrica R vs Stata

From: Mike Marchywka <marchywka_at_hotmail.com>
Date: Thu, 12 May 2011 08:30:54 -0400

So what was the final verdict on this discussion? I kind of lost track if anyone has a minute to summarize and critique my summary below.

Apparently there were two issues, the comparison between R and Stata was one issue and the "optimum" solution another. As I understand it, there was some question about R numerical gradient calculation. This would suggest some features of the function may be of interest to consider.

The function to be optimized appears to be, as OP stated, some function of residuals of two ( unrelated ) fits. The residual vectors e1 and e2 are dotted in various combinations creating a matrix whose determinant is (e1.e1)(e2.e2)-(e1.e2)^2 which is the result to be minimized by choice of theta. Theta it seems is an 8 component vector, 4 components determine e1 and the other 4 e2. Presumably a unique solution would require that e1 and e2, both n-component vectors,  point in different directions or else both could become aribtarily large while keeping the error signal at zero. For fixed magnitudes, colinearity would reduce the "Error."  The intent would appear to be to keep the residuals distributed similarly in the two ( unrelated) fits.  I guess my question is,
" did anyone determine that there is a unique solution?" or am I totally wrong here ( I haven't used these myself to any extent and just try to run some simple teaching examples, asking for my own clarification as much as anything).

Thanks.



> From: rvaradhan_at_jhmi.edu
> To: pdalgd_at_gmail.com; alex.olssen_at_gmail.com
> Date: Sat, 7 May 2011 11:51:56 -0400
> CC: r-help@r-project.org
> Subject: Re: [R] maximum likelihood convergence reproducing Anderson Blundell 1982 Econometrica R vs Stata
>
> There is something strange in this problem. I think the log-likelihood is incorrect. See the results below from "optimx". You can get much larger log-likelihood values than for the exact solution that Peter provided.
>
> ## model 18
> lnl <- function(theta,y1, y2, x1, x2, x3) {
> n <- length(y1)
> beta <- theta[1:8]
> e1 <- y1 - theta[1] - theta[2]*x1 - theta[3]*x2 - theta[4]*x3
> e2 <- y2 - theta[5] - theta[6]*x1 - theta[7]*x2 - theta[8]*x3
> e <- cbind(e1, e2)
> sigma <- t(e)%*%e
> logl <- -1*n/2*(2*(1+log(2*pi)) + log(det(sigma))) # it looks like there is something wrong here
> return(-logl)
> }
>
> data <- read.table("e:/computing/optimx_example.dat", header=TRUE, sep=",")
>
> attach(data)
>
> require(optimx)
>
> start <- c(coef(lm(y1~x1+x2+x3)), coef(lm(y2~x1+x2+x3)))
>
> # the warnings can be safely ignored in the "optimx" calls
> p1 <- optimx(start, lnl, hessian=TRUE, y1=y1, y2=y2,
> + x1=x1, x2=x2, x3=x3, control=list(all.methods=TRUE, maxit=1500))
>
> p2 <- optimx(rep(0,8), lnl, hessian=TRUE, y1=y1, y2=y2,
> + x1=x1, x2=x2, x3=x3, control=list(all.methods=TRUE, maxit=1500))
>
> p3 <- optimx(rep(0.5,8), lnl, hessian=TRUE, y1=y1, y2=y2,
> + x1=x1, x2=x2, x3=x3, control=list(all.methods=TRUE, maxit=1500))
>
> Ravi.
> ________________________________________
> From: r-help-bounces_at_r-project.org [r-help-bounces_at_r-project.org] On Behalf Of peter dalgaard [pdalgd_at_gmail.com]
> Sent: Saturday, May 07, 2011 4:46 AM
> To: Alex Olssen
> Cc: r-help_at_r-project.org
> Subject: Re: [R] maximum likelihood convergence reproducing Anderson Blundell 1982 Econometrica R vs Stata
>
> On May 6, 2011, at 14:29 , Alex Olssen wrote:
>
> > Dear R-help,
> >
> > I am trying to reproduce some results presented in a paper by Anderson
> > and Blundell in 1982 in Econometrica using R.
> > The estimation I want to reproduce concerns maximum likelihood
> > estimation of a singular equation system.
> > I can estimate the static model successfully in Stata but for the
> > dynamic models I have difficulty getting convergence.
> > My R program which uses the same likelihood function as in Stata has
> > convergence properties even for the static case.
> >
> > I have copied my R program and the data below. I realise the code
> > could be made more elegant - but it is short enough.
> >
> > Any ideas would be highly appreciated.
>
> Better starting values would help. In this case, almost too good values are available:
>
> start <- c(coef(lm(y1~x1+x2+x3)), coef(lm(y2~x1+x2+x3)))
>
> which appears to be the _exact_ solution.
>
> Apart from that, it seems that the conjugate gradient methods have difficulties with this likelihood, for some less than obvious reason. Increasing the maxit gets you closer but still not satisfactory.
>
> I would suggest trying out the experimental optimx package. Apparently, some of the algorithms in there are much better at handling this likelihood, notably "nlm" and "nlminb".
>
>
>
>
> >
> > ## model 18
> > lnl <- function(theta,y1, y2, x1, x2, x3) {
> > n <- length(y1)
> > beta <- theta[1:8]
> > e1 <- y1 - theta[1] - theta[2]*x1 - theta[3]*x2 - theta[4]*x3
> > e2 <- y2 - theta[5] - theta[6]*x1 - theta[7]*x2 - theta[8]*x3
> > e <- cbind(e1, e2)
> > sigma <- t(e)%*%e
> > logl <- -1*n/2*(2*(1+log(2*pi)) + log(det(sigma)))
> > return(-logl)
> > }
> > p <- optim(0*c(1:8), lnl, method="BFGS", hessian=TRUE, y1=y1, y2=y2,
> > x1=x1, x2=x2, x3=x3)
> >
> > "year","y1","y2","x1","x2","x3"
> > 1929,0.554779,0.266051,9.87415,8.60371,3.75673
> > 1930,0.516336,0.297473,9.68621,8.50492,3.80692
> > 1931,0.508201,0.324199,9.4701,8.27596,3.80437
> > 1932,0.500482,0.33958,9.24692,7.99221,3.76251
> > 1933,0.501695,0.276974,9.35356,7.98968,3.69071
> > 1934,0.591426,0.287008,9.42084,8.0362,3.63564
> > 1935,0.565047,0.244096,9.53972,8.15803,3.59285
> > 1936,0.605954,0.239187,9.6914,8.32009,3.56678
> > 1937,0.620161,0.218232,9.76817,8.42001,3.57381
> > 1938,0.592091,0.243161,9.51295,8.19771,3.6024
> > 1939,0.613115,0.217042,9.68047,8.30987,3.58147
> > 1940,0.632455,0.215269,9.78417,8.49624,3.57744
> > 1941,0.663139,0.184409,10.0606,8.69868,3.6095
> > 1942,0.698179,0.164348,10.2892,8.84523,3.66664
> > 1943,0.70459,0.146865,10.4731,8.93024,3.65388
> > 1944,0.694067,0.161722,10.4465,8.96044,3.62434
> > 1945,0.674668,0.197231,10.279,8.82522,3.61489
> > 1946,0.635916,0.204232,10.1536,8.77547,3.67562
> > 1947,0.642855,0.187224,10.2053,8.77481,3.82632
> > 1948,0.641063,0.186566,10.2227,8.83821,3.96038
> > 1949,0.646317,0.203646,10.1127,8.82364,4.0447
> > 1950,0.645476,0.187497,10.2067,8.84161,4.08128
> > 1951,0.63803,0.197361,10.2773,8.9401,4.10951
> > 1952,0.634626,0.209992,10.283,9.01603,4.1693
> > 1953,0.631144,0.219287,10.3217,9.06317,4.21727
> > 1954,0.593088,0.235335,10.2101,9.05664,4.2567
> > 1955,0.60736,0.227035,10.272,9.07566,4.29193
> > 1956,0.607204,0.246631,10.2743,9.12407,4.32252
> > 1957,0.586994,0.256784,10.2396,9.1588,4.37792
> > 1958,0.548281,0.271022,10.1248,9.14025,4.42641
> > 1959,0.553401,0.261815,10.2012,9.1598,4.4346
> > 1960,0.552105,0.275137,10.1846,9.19297,4.43173
> > 1961,0.544133,0.280783,10.1479,9.19533,4.44407
> > 1962,0.55382,0.281286,10.197,9.21544,4.45074
> > 1963,0.549951,0.28303,10.2036,9.22841,4.46403
> > 1964,0.547204,0.291287,10.2271,9.23954,4.48447
> > 1965,0.55511,0.281313,10.2882,9.26531,4.52057
> > 1966,0.558182,0.280151,10.353,9.31675,4.58156
> > 1967,0.545735,0.294385,10.3351,9.35382,4.65983
> > 1968,0.538964,0.294593,10.3525,9.38361,4.71804
> > 1969,0.542764,0.299927,10.3676,9.40725,4.76329
> > 1970,0.534595,0.315319,10.2968,9.39139,4.81136
> > 1971,0.545591,0.315828,10.2592,9.34121,4.84082
> >
> > ______________________________________________
> > R-help_at_r-project.org mailing list
> > https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
> > PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
> > and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
>
> --
> Peter Dalgaard
> Center for Statistics, Copenhagen Business School
> Solbjerg Plads 3, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
> Phone: (+45)38153501
> Email: pd.mes_at_cbs.dk Priv: PDalgd_at_gmail.com
>
> ______________________________________________
> R-help_at_r-project.org mailing list
> https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
> PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
> and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
>
> ______________________________________________
> R-help_at_r-project.org mailing list
> https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
> PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
> and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
                                               

R-help_at_r-project.org mailing list
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code. Received on Thu 12 May 2011 - 12:33:57 GMT

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