Re: [R] [R-SIG-Finance] EMM: how to make forecast using EMM methods?

From: Mark Leeds <markleeds_at_verizon.net>
Date: Thu, 28 Feb 2008 19:02:42 -0500


I can't say much about Garch/SV being better or worse but I know that's there an approximate functional equivalence between exponential smoothing and a regular moving average ( i.e: rolling window ). It's something like lambda = 1/(2n +1) or something like that but I don't remember. It's in any decent technical analysis book and it's true empirically because I've played around with it in the past.

-----Original Message-----
From: r-sig-finance-bounces_at_stat.math.ethz.ch [mailto:r-sig-finance-bounces_at_stat.math.ethz.ch] On Behalf Of elton wang Sent: Thursday, February 28, 2008 4:36 PM To: r-sig-finance_at_stat.math.ethz.ch; r-help Subject: Re: [R-SIG-Finance] EMM: how to make forecast using EMM methods?

I've heard opinions that GARCH/SV volatility models are not better on forecasting than simple exponential moving average volatilities or even rolling window historical vol.
Any practitioners mind comment?

> Hi all,
>
> We followed some books and sample codes and did some
> EMM estimation,
> only to find it won't be able to generate forecast.
>
> This is because in the stochastic volatility models
> we are estimating,
> the volatilities are latent variables, and we want
> to forecast 1-step
> ahead or h-step ahead volatilities.
>
> So it is nice to have the system estimated, but we
> couldn't get it to
> forecast at all.
>
> There is a "Reprojection" Method described in the
> original EMM paper,
> but let's say we reproject to a GARCH(1,1) model,
> then only the
> GARCH(1, 1) parameters are significant, which
> basically means we
> degrade the SV model into a GARCH model. There is no
> way to do the
> forecast...
>
> Could anybody give some pointers?
>
> Thanks!
>
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